LES Report

LES (liquidation exhaustion) for every ticker in scope: forced selling, the selling drying up, then a reclaim. Click a ticker to show it on the dashboard with a line at the event and volume bars.

How LES is measured

Daily candles

  • Heavy selling: a down day that makes a 20-day low on at least 2x the 20-day average volume.
  • Selling faded: 2 days with no new low, each at 60% of the heaviest day's volume or less.
  • Reversal: a close above the heavy day's high.

5-minute candles (regular session)

  • Heavy selling: a red 5-minute candle at a new session low on at least 3x the ticker's average 5-minute volume (20-day average volume / 78) and 2x today's median candle. The first 15 minutes cannot start one.
  • Selling faded: 2 candles with no new low, each at 40% of the heaviest candle's volume or less.
  • Reversal: 2 closes above the high of the candle that made the low.

Selling faded and Reversal post to Discord (daily also posts Heavy selling). A missing candle means no data, never a quiet one. A new low starts the episode again. Thresholds are starting values, not proven edges.

Capitulation Watch

Tickers you asked Ozy to watch for a capitulation. Heavy selling, Selling faded and Reversal post to the LES channel from the daily chart, and Selling faded and Reversal from the 5-min chart.

TickerPriceChg20d trendOff lowVolร—Daily5-minHeavy 90dLast eventSince
LCRXWaiting for candles: Ozy is adding LCRX to the poll list.

Tickers

TickerPriceChg20d trendOff lowVolร—Daily5-minHeavy 90dLast eventSince
QQQ674.76-0.7%โ–ˆโ–ˆโ–‡โ–‡โ–‡โ–ˆโ–†โ–†โ–‡โ–ˆโ–ˆโ–‡โ–…โ–„โ–„โ–…โ–โ–โ–„โ–ƒ+4.3%0.8xSelling faded--1Selling faded 2026-11-09-0.7%
SPY749.92-0.4%โ–ˆโ–ˆโ–‡โ–‡โ–ˆโ–ˆโ–‡โ–†โ–‡โ–ˆโ–ˆโ–ˆโ–…โ–„โ–…โ–‡โ–โ–โ–„โ–„+2.3%0.8xSelling faded--1Selling faded 2026-11-09-0.4%
TQQQ56.56-1.8%โ–ˆโ–ˆโ–‡โ–‡โ–‡โ–ˆโ–†โ–†โ–‡โ–‡โ–ˆโ–‡โ–„โ–„โ–„โ–„โ–โ–โ–ƒโ–ƒ+12.6%1.0xSelling faded--1Selling faded 2026-11-09-1.8%
XLK168.91-1.2%โ–ˆโ–ˆโ–†โ–‡โ–‡โ–ˆโ–†โ–†โ–‡โ–ˆโ–ˆโ–ˆโ–…โ–„โ–„โ–„โ–โ–โ–ƒโ–‚+4.2%0.8xSelling faded--1Selling faded 2026-11-09-1.2%
IBIT41.68-1.5%โ–†โ–‡โ–†โ–†โ–‡โ–ˆโ–†โ–†โ–…โ–†โ–†โ–†โ–ƒโ–ƒโ–„โ–…โ–‚โ–‚โ–โ–+1.4%0.9xHeavy selling--1Heavy selling 2026-11-05-3.1%
GLD369.36-2.7%โ–‡โ–ˆโ–ˆโ–ˆโ–‡โ–‡โ–„โ–„โ–„โ–…โ–†โ–„โ–โ–‚โ–‚โ–…โ–†โ–…โ–ˆโ–…+4.1%0.9x----2Reversal 2026-11-04-0.8%
SLV46.48-3.4%โ–†โ–ˆโ–ˆโ–ˆโ–ˆโ–ˆโ–…โ–…โ–…โ–…โ–…โ–ƒโ–โ–‚โ–โ–ƒโ–ƒโ–ƒโ–„โ–‚+5.4%0.8x----2Reversal 2026-11-04-1.4%
XLF58.29+0.5%โ–โ–‚โ–‚โ–โ–ƒโ–ƒโ–„โ–ƒโ–ƒโ–ƒโ–ƒโ–…โ–„โ–†โ–…โ–ˆโ–†โ–…โ–†โ–‡+7.9%0.8x----1Reversal 2026-10-06+7.9%
IAU75.74-2.6%โ–†โ–ˆโ–ˆโ–ˆโ–‡โ–‡โ–„โ–„โ–„โ–…โ–†โ–„โ–โ–‚โ–‚โ–…โ–†โ–…โ–ˆโ–…+4.2%1.1x----1Reversal 2026-10-01-3.5%
$VIX19.46-2.3%โ–โ–โ–ƒโ–‚โ–โ–โ–‚โ–ƒโ–‚โ–โ–โ–โ–ƒโ–„โ–ƒโ–โ–ˆโ–‡โ–ƒโ–ƒ+29.9%----
SMH647.10+4.4%โ–โ–โ–‚โ–‚โ–ƒโ–…โ–„โ–…โ–…โ–…โ–‡โ–ˆโ–‡โ–‚โ–…โ–„โ–ƒโ–†โ–†โ–ˆ+22.6%0.9x----
XLC109.45+0.2%โ–ˆโ–‡โ–‡โ–ˆโ–ˆโ–‡โ–‡โ–…โ–„โ–…โ–ƒโ–ƒโ–ƒโ–‚โ–„โ–ƒโ–„โ–„โ–โ–+0.9%1.9x----
XLE55.55-3.5%โ–ˆโ–ˆโ–†โ–…โ–†โ–„โ–ƒโ–‚โ–‚โ–ƒโ–„โ–…โ–…โ–ƒโ–„โ–ƒโ–„โ–ƒโ–ƒโ–+1.0%1.1x----
XLI178.68+1.4%โ–‚โ–โ–‚โ–‚โ–ƒโ–…โ–…โ–…โ–„โ–ƒโ–…โ–…โ–†โ–…โ–„โ–†โ–โ–†โ–†โ–ˆ+6.3%0.9x----
XLP85.48-0.4%โ–ˆโ–ˆโ–‡โ–†โ–†โ–„โ–†โ–…โ–ƒโ–โ–โ–โ–โ–„โ–ƒโ–…โ–‡โ–‡โ–ˆโ–‡+4.9%0.9x----
XLU44.74+0.5%โ–ƒโ–…โ–†โ–‡โ–ˆโ–ˆโ–ˆโ–†โ–…โ–โ–ƒโ–ƒโ–ƒโ–…โ–‚โ–„โ–„โ–„โ–†โ–†+3.9%0.9x----
XLV152.89-0.6%โ–โ–‚โ–‚โ–ƒโ–„โ–ƒโ–ƒโ–…โ–„โ–‚โ–โ–‚โ–†โ–‡โ–‡โ–ˆโ–‡โ–ˆโ–ˆโ–‡+6.1%0.9x----
XLY118.57+1.7%โ–ƒโ–‚โ–…โ–…โ–†โ–†โ–ˆโ–ˆโ–‡โ–…โ–„โ–„โ–„โ–‚โ–‚โ–ƒโ–โ–ƒโ–ƒโ–…+4.6%0.8x----

Events

WhenTickerChartEventPriceLowVolร—Since
2026-11-09QQQDailySelling faded679.35647.053.0xโ†’1.1x-0.7%
2026-11-09SPYDailySelling faded752.69732.713.1xโ†’1.1x-0.4%
2026-11-09TQQQDailySelling faded57.5850.253.6xโ†’1.2x-1.8%
2026-11-09XLKDailySelling faded170.88162.143.3xโ†’1.3x-1.2%
2026-11-05IBITDailyHeavy selling43.0342.663.4x-3.1%
2026-11-05TQQQDailyHeavy selling50.4750.253.6x+12.1%
2026-11-04GLDDailyReversal372.49354.672.0xโ†’1.4x-0.8%
2026-11-04IBITDailyReversal45.3343.023.4xโ†’1.5x-8.1%
2026-11-04SLVDailyReversal47.1644.112.4xโ†’1.1x-1.4%
2026-11-03GLDDailySelling faded359.26354.672.0xโ†’0.7x+2.8%
2026-11-03IBITDailySelling faded44.0543.023.4xโ†’0.6x-5.4%
2026-11-03SLVDailySelling faded44.8444.112.4xโ†’1.0x+3.7%
2026-10-30GLDDailyHeavy selling355.78354.672.0x+3.8%
2026-10-30IBITDailyHeavy selling43.3643.023.4x-3.9%
2026-10-30QQQDailyHeavy selling690.49683.452.3x-2.3%
2026-10-30SLVDailyHeavy selling44.6044.112.4x+4.2%
2026-10-30SPYDailyHeavy selling755.72750.362.1x-0.8%
2026-10-30XLKDailyHeavy selling179.51176.922.2x-5.9%
2026-10-28GLDDailyReversal373.51364.332.3xโ†’1.2x-1.1%
2026-10-27GLDDailySelling faded372.28364.332.3xโ†’0.7x-0.8%
2026-10-22GLDDailyHeavy selling369.00368.352.3x+0.1%
2026-10-20SLVDailyReversal52.1250.012.4xโ†’1.0x-10.8%
2026-10-16SLVDailySelling faded51.5150.012.4xโ†’0.9x-9.8%
2026-10-14SLVDailyHeavy selling50.2250.012.4x-7.4%
2026-10-06XLFDailyReversal54.0152.812.3xโ†’0.6x+7.9%
2026-10-05XLFDailySelling faded53.8852.812.3xโ†’0.8x+8.2%
2026-10-01IAUDailyReversal78.4777.282.3xโ†’0.8x-3.5%
2026-09-30IAUDailySelling faded78.1077.282.3xโ†’0.7x-3.0%
2026-09-28IAUDailyHeavy selling77.5077.282.3x-2.3%
2026-09-22XLFDailyHeavy selling54.8054.552.3x+6.4%
2026-09-18IAUDailySelling faded82.2379.612.3xโ†’0.5x-7.9%
2026-09-14IAUDailyHeavy selling80.5480.162.3x-6.0%

Bitcoin (crypto add-on)

Bitcoin trades around the clock with no stock volume to read, so its version counts futures liquidations instead.

Now: Normal ยท BTC 73,409 ยท longs liquidated, last 15 min: $344K.

How the Bitcoin version is measured
  • Data: every 2 minutes, the dollar value of long positions force-closed (liquidated) each minute on Binance, Bybit and OKX Bitcoin perpetual futures, from Coinalyze, plus Bitcoin's 1-minute price from the same feed. A missing minute counts as a gap, never as zero.
  • Spike: longs liquidated in 15 minutes reach 3x the median 15-minute total of the last 24 hours, and at least $10.0M.
  • Cascade: price then makes a new 15-minute low while at least $1.0M of longs are liquidated in 5 minutes.
  • Exhaustion: the 5-minute liquidation rate falls to 30% of its peak or less, with no new low for 10 minutes. Posted.
  • Reversal: 2 5-minute closes above the high of the candle that made the cascade low. Posted.

A new low after Exhaustion or Reversal starts the cascade again. Moves are kept for 2 days. Thresholds are starting values, not proven edges.

When (PT)MoveBTCLongs 15mPosted
2026-11-10 9:55Reversal73,174$4Kyes
2026-11-10 8:48Exhaustion72,924$8.8Myes
2026-11-10 8:38Cascade72,737$9.5M
2026-11-10 8:25Reversal73,315$472Kyes
2026-11-10 7:55Exhaustion73,174$16.7Myes
2026-11-10 7:40Cascade73,225$17.1M
2026-11-10 7:38Liquidation spike73,422$15.6M
2026-11-10 5:31Liquidation spike74,050$12.3M